Jacob Brown
As hurricane season approaches, researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) have released their initial outlook for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, predicting heightened activity.
CSU anticipates 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes for the upcoming season. This forecast surpasses the seasonal averages and could rank as the record’s third most active hurricane season.
Potential Supplemental Name List Usage:
With 23 named storms forecasted, exceeding NOAA’s 2024 list, the potential need for the supplemental name list arises, a situation previously encountered only twice.
The forecast attributes the robust outlook to two main factors: record high sea surface temperatures and an expected La Niña weather pattern.
Record High Sea Surface Temperatures:
Current sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic Oceans are at record levels, providing ample energy for tropical system development and intensification.
While an El Niño pattern typically inhibits storm development, the forecast indicates a transition to a La Niña phase during the peak of hurricane season. La Niña conditions are conducive to storm development due to weaker upper-level winds.
Potential for Change:
While the forecast suggests an active season, it’s essential to note that hurricane season is dynamic, and forecasts may evolve.
Nonetheless, the projected activity underscores the importance of vigilance and preparedness during the upcoming season.
